If you are not bullish in general on cryptocurrencies you have no place in investing or trading cryptocurrencies since it's always a losing proposition to trade in bubbles, a scientifically proven fact. If on the other hand you are then your goal is to grow your portfolio more than you would if holding BTC/ETH for example.
If I decide because the sky is blue to make my coin supply 100 Trillion FoolCoins with a price of $0.001 and there is another WiseCoin with a supply of 100 Million and price of $1 then FoolCoins are more expensive. - Alex Fin's Cap Law
25. https://news.bitcoin.com/eth-volumes-top-125-billion-in-q3-high-risk-dapps-dominate-tron-network/Here is a small cross post for price movement: https://dailyhodl.com/2020/09/30/bitcoin-btc-tezos-xtz-cardano-ada-etoro-crypto-roundup/
The DeFi ecosystem has already recreated traditional financial instruments in a new ‘unchained’ decentralized structure. This year, a huge number of DeFi-related projects gained the attention of crypto enthusiasts. The leaders of the race are Maker, Compound, Aave, Curve, Synthetix and QDAO DeFi. These projects provide a significant number of opportunities to earn money. So let’s find out what the DeFi market mood is right now and how you can increase your holdings in 2020.submitted by QDAODeFi to u/QDAODeFi [link] [comments]
DeFi market 2020According to data provider DeFiPulse, the total value locked in USD right now is $6.7 billion. And it is best to check the data regularly because it is growing rapidly.
For instance, the value was $4.21 billion at the beginning of August 2020. It rose by one third in just 3 weeks.
Taha Zafar, a crypto analyst, shared data that illustrates how DeFi tokens performed within the past 90 days. As you see, they are doing even better than Bitcoin.
So while the market is soaring, there are already a number of DeFi leaders that stand out among others.
However, 2020 introduced some new figures on this chessboard. Compound competes with Maker in the lending sector and is not yielding its position. At the moment, the Compound credit portfolio is $820 million, when at the beginning of the year, it was $100 million.
With Aave, Curve and Synthetix breaking into the top 10 most successful projects in DeFiPulse and QDAO DeFi being the most promising one, the DeFi market is emerging as a real alternative to the traditional finance sector.
Recently, the DeFi Overview Twitter account posted an illustrative map that demonstrates how fast all the main market players are growing: https://twitter.com/DefiOverview/status/1297829568271642624
While Binance has already listed some DeFi projects like Compound, Synthetix, YFI and Curve, the u/top7ico posted a forecast list of other promising DeFi projects. https://twitter.com/top7ico/status/1297540483913093120
What DeFi projects are aiming to get in TOPsDeFiPulse is the world’s leading resource for providing its audience with fresh-from-the-oven, comprehensive information concerning DeFi. Here you can find all the latest analytics and rankings for DeFi protocols. Moreover, this resource provides you with a list of the best resources on the topic.
The information is being refreshed every hour. The Total Value Locked is calculated by multiplying the total balance of Ether (ETH) and ERC-20 tokens by their price in USD.
To sum up, it is the most interactive platform that maintains the upper hand and provides you with the freshest information about the DeFi market.
Besides, DeFi Pulse has a handy calculator that shows how much money you can earn by locking specific assets.
The calculator also shows how much you can get in Compound, dYdX and Maker.
The platform offers a full range of services just like any usual bank:
QDAO DeFi offers 17 currencies and the interface is user-friendly and convenient.
You can open a Secure Personal QDAO DeFi Account and start earning passive income from the very first day. The interest is paid out daily with no fees.
Users can withdraw funds after they reach the minimum withdrawal amount in a specific cryptocurrency.
You can open a deposit in just a few minutes, click the link to find out how.
What’s next for DeFi projects?Earning on DeFi platforms is easy and convenient. The major players offer a great variety of services to help you find the best way to trade, mint and stake.
Billionaire Bitcoin bull, Tim Draper says, “The DeFi world is almost as technologically advanced as the dollar and when it is, there will be no one who will want to accept a politically manipulable currency like dollars anymore.”
Will DeFi fully replace all the traditional financial instruments? Opinions are divided. However, it can become the basis of a new digital banking system and return the trust to the financial system.
Want to be the first to hear QDAO DeFi news and updates? Visit our website and stay in touch with us on social media: Twitter, Facebook, Telegram and LINE (for the Japanese-speaking community).
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Cryptocurrency technical analysis: bears drive the crypto market movement
The negative sentiment continues to reign in the crypto asset market, as indicated by technical and fundamental analyzes. Thus, the drop in demand for many top altcoins caused by the bitcoin correction has already led to the fact that the bears have reached many targets located in the support area. At the same time, several interesting events took place on the crypto market over the past working week. On July 15, it became known that the Chinese authorities will test the digital yuan on the largest supplier of groceries and food delivery Meituan Dianping. The work of the Chinese CBDC is already being tested by McDonald’s corporations, Starbucks and DiDi, the largest taxi aggregator in the Middle Kingdom. On June 16, Samsung announced the start of a partnership with Stellar, within which the developments of the blockchain project will be integrated into the Samsung Blockchain Keystore and Samsung Galaxy smartphones. Also, one cannot fail to note the large-scale hacking of the social network Twitter. On the night of July 15–16, unknown attackers gained access to 130 accounts of prominent businessmen, politicians and opinion leaders. As a result, fake Elon Musk, Changpen Zhao, Bill Gates and Barack Obama posted messages calling for bitcoins to be sent to them, which allowed them to collect 12.86 BTC.
BitcoinOn the four-hour chart, bitcoin develops a very clear movement along the levels from the point of view of technical analysis. After retesting the resistance at $9500 and the lower boundary of the “Triangle” pattern, BTC quotes rushed down to the first target at $9150. If in the coming days the price consolidates below the support level, then in the short term we should expect the development of a downtrend. The closest targets for sellers will be $9000 and $8760 (38.2% correction at Fibonacci levels). At the same time, the persistence of negative sentiment in the stock market will be a signal for the digital currency market, which will continue to fall until the beginning of autumn and the recovery of the business cycle.
In the long term, this may lead to a decline to supports at $8330 and $8050. But in order to push the price lower, the bears will need to exert enormous forces. Moreover, from these levels, whales will begin to gain new positions, which will push the bitcoin price up and launch a medium-term growth trend. It will confirm its departure above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) line and the closing of Japanese candlesticks above $9500. In the long term, this will make it possible to achieve medium-term goals in the form of clusters of $9,900- $10,000 and $10,400- $10,500.
BTC / USD chart, four-hour timeframe
So far, the first cryptocurrency also cannot form a global trend, and this has led to the fact that Bitcoin continues to consolidate movement within the $8900 cluster (50% correction at Fibonacci levels) — $9580. BTC quotes have already dropped below the $9,300 level, which could lead to sales up to $8,900. In the future, we should expect Bitcoin to test the targets of $8600 and $8220, where the 200-day moving average (MA) line and the lower border of the technical analysis model “Triangle” (on the chart below, its borders are marked in orange).
For a short time, BTC quotes may even drop to supports at $7400 and $6800, but the forecast for the price rebound back up and the formation of a long-term upward trend seems more likely. This will allow Bitcoin to reach the $10,000 and $10,500 levels, and their subsequent breakout will allow the asset to rush to the $11,000, $11,200- $11,300 and $11,800 levels by the end of the year.
BTC / USD chart, daily timeframe
EthereumThe altcoin market is also developing neutral dynamics so far, but more and more signals appear on the charts that speak in favor of the development of a downward movement.
Big capital is not yet ready to acquire digital assets at a price that has grown strongly since March.
Ether price develops along the $233 level (11.4% Fibonacci retracement line) and within the framework of consolidation within the $220- $251 range. The drop in the total demand for digital assets will lead to a decrease in the cost of ether towards the first target in the form of consolidation of $195- $200, where the 200-day MA line is located. The further course of trading will be determined by the appearance or absence of demand for cryptocurrencies. In the long term, by the end of the year, we should expect a move above $251 to the resistance areas of $280, $300 and $320.
ETH / USD chart, daily timeframe
LitecoinOn the daily chart, Litecoin continues to consolidate above the support boundaries in the form of a $40- $42 cluster, which takes the form of the Andrews Pitchfork technical analysis model. The development of the downward dynamics will lead to the fact that the cost of LTC will drop to $36 and $30.60. But in the medium term, we should expect the quotes to move above the 200-period MA line, which passes in the resistance area of $47.45. Overcoming it in the coming months will allow LTC quotes to soar to the levels of $51.50 (38.2% correctional level along the Fibonacci lines), $56.80, $60.80, $65 and $70.
LTC / USD chart, daily timeframe
Bitcoin CashThe Bitcoin fork began to decline after the breakout and a very clear retest of the lower boundary of the technical analysis model “Triangle” (on the chart below, its boundaries are marked in pink). At the same time, the Bitcoin Cash quotes remain within the framework of a broader consolidation in the form of the “Horizontal Channel” $200- $272. However, the priority trading scenario remains a decline in Bitcoin Cash to the $200 level. There is also a high probability of updating the March lows in the $170 and $150 regions.
However, in the months ahead, expect BCH to move above $272, where the 200-day SMA line passes, paving the way to the $305, $356 and $400 levels.
BCH / USDT chart, daily timeframe
XRPXRP is also under the influence of bears, leading to a decline towards the resistance level at $0.2050. In the coming weeks, the asset may test the support at $0.18, where the lower border of the Descending Triangle model lies. The development of the downward movement will allow XRP to test the support at $0.16 and $0.1470.
But in the medium term, a signal for a reversal of the downtrend may appear in the event of a break above the 200-day MA line passing at the level of $0.2360. If this happens, then in the second half of 2020 XRP will be able to reach important targets at the levels of $0.2540, $0.27, $0.2860 and $0.30.
XRP / USD chart, daily timeframe
Binance CoinBinance Coin tried to break the bottom of the Ascending Triangle, but failed. The current quotes are supported by the 200-day SMA line and the boundaries of the $15.30- $16 area. Maintaining the downward momentum will allow BNB to rush down to the supports at $13.80 and $11.50.
But the most likely scenario looks like a final consolidation above the 200-day MA. This will open the way to the current resistances at $17 and $18.14, as well as the first target in the form of a $19.36- $20 cluster. Testing of the $21.30 and $23.50 levels is also expected in the coming months.
BNB / USDT chart, daily timeframe
Now more and more crypto assets are showing a willingness to succumb to bearish pressure, which will send quotes into a short decline that will last over the next few weeks. But by the end of the year, we should expect the activity of whales, which will begin to massively buy cryptocurrencies. This will undoubtedly send their value into a long-term upward rally.
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A whirlwind tour of Defi, paying close attention to protocols that we’re leveraging at Genesis Block.submitted by mickhagen to genesisblockhq [link] [comments]
This is the third post of Crypto-Powered — a new series that examines what it means for Genesis Block to be a digital bank that’s powered by crypto, blockchain, and decentralized protocols.
Last week we explored how building on legacy finance is a fool’s errand. The future of money belongs to those who build with crypto and blockchain at their core. We also started down the crypto rabbit hole, introducing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and DeFi (decentralized finance). That post is required reading if you hope to glean any value from the rest of this series.
97% of all activity on Ethereum in the last quarter has been DeFi-related. The total value sitting inside DeFi protocols is roughly $2B — double what it was a month ago. The explosive growth cannot be ignored. All signs suggest that Ethereum & DeFi are a Match Made in Heaven, and both on their way to finding strong product/market fit.
So in this post, we’re doing a whirlwind tour of DeFi. We look at specific examples and use-cases already in the wild and seeing strong growth. And we pay close attention to protocols that Genesis Block is integrating with. Alright, let’s dive in.
StablecoinsStablecoins are exactly what they sound like: cryptocurrencies that are stable. They are not meant to be volatile (like Bitcoin). These assets attempt to peg their price to some external reference (eg. USD or Gold). A non-volatile crypto asset can be incredibly useful for things like merchant payments, cross-border transfers, or storing wealth — becoming your own bank but without the stress of constant price volatility.
There are major governments and central banks that are experimenting with or soon launching their own stablecoins like China with their digital yuan and the US Federal Reserve with their digital dollar. There are also major corporations working in this area like JP Morgan with their JPM Coin, and of course Facebook with their Libra Project.
Stablecoin activity has grown 800% in the last year, with $290B of transaction volume (funds moving on-chain).The most popular USD-pegged stablecoins include:
tablecoins are playing an increasingly important role in the world of DeFi. In a way, they serve as common pipes & bridges between the various protocols.https://preview.redd.it/v9ki2qro12b51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbf591b122fc4b3d83b381389145b88e2505b51d
Lending & BorrowingThree of the top five DeFi protocols relate to lending & borrowing. These popular lending protocols look very similar to traditional money markets. Users who want to earn interest/yield can deposit (lend) their funds into a pool of liquidity. Because it behaves similarly to traditional money markets, their funds are not locked, they can withdraw at any time. It’s highly liquid.
Borrowers can tap into this pool of liquidity and take out loans. Interest rates depend on the utilization rate of the pool — how much of the deposits in the pool have already been borrowed. Supply & demand. Thus, interest rates are variable and borrowers can pay their loans back at any time.
So, who decides how much a borrower can take? What’s the process like? Are there credit checks? How is credit-worthiness determined?These protocols are decentralized, borderless, permissionless. The people participating in these markets are from all over the world. There is no simple way to verify identity or check credit history. So none of that happens.
Credit-worthiness is determined simply by how much crypto collateral the borrower puts into the protocol. For example, if a user wants to borrow $5k of USDC, then they’ll need to deposit $10k of BTC or ETH. The exact amount of collateral depends on the rules of the protocol — usually the more liquid the collateral asset, the more borrowing power the user can receive.
The most prominent lending protocols include Compound, Aave, Maker, and Atomic Loans. Recently, Compound has seen meteoric growth with the introduction of their COMP token — a token used to incentivize and reward participants of the protocol. There’s almost $1B in outstanding debt in the Compound protocol. Mainframe is also working on an exciting protocol in this area and the latest iteration of their white paper should be coming out soon.
There is very little economic risk to these protocols because all loans are overcollateralized.I repeat, all loans are overcollateralized. If the value of the collateral depreciates significantly due to price volatility, there are sophisticated liquidation systems to ensure the loan always gets paid back.
InvestmentsBuying, selling, and trading crypto assets is certainly one form of investing (though not for the faint of heart). But there are now DeFi protocols to facilitate making and managing traditional-style investments.
Through DeFi, you can invest in Gold. You can invest in stocks like Amazon and Apple. You can short Tesla. You can access the S&P 500. This is done through crypto-based synthetics — which gives users exposure to assets without needing to hold or own the underlying asset. This is all possible with protocols like UMA, Synthetix, or Market protocol.
Maybe your style of investing is more passive. With PoolTogether , you can participate in a no-loss lottery.
Maybe you’re an advanced trader and want to trade options or futures. You can do that with DeFi protocols like Convexity, Futureswap, and dYdX. Maybe you live on the wild side and trade on margin or leverage, you can do that with protocols like Fulcrum, Nuo, and DDEX. Or maybe you’re a degenerate gambler and want to bet against Trump in the upcoming election, you can do that on Augur.
And there are plenty of DeFi protocols to help with crypto investing. You could use Set Protocol if you need automated trading strategies. You could use Melonport if you’re an asset manager. You could use Balancer to automatically rebalance your portfolio.
With as little as $1, people all over the world can have access to the same investment opportunities and tools that used to be reserved for only the wealthy, or those lucky enough to be born in the right country.
You can start to imagine how services like Etrade, TD Ameritrade, Schwab, and even Robinhood could be massively disrupted by a crypto-native company that builds with these types of protocols at their foundation.https://preview.redd.it/agco8msx12b51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=3bbb595f9ecc84758d276dbf82bc5ddd9e329ff8
InsuranceAs mentioned in our previous post, there are near-infinite applications one can build on Ethereum. As a result, sometimes the code doesn’t work as expected. Bugs get through, it breaks. We’re still early in our industry. The tools, frameworks, and best practices are all still being established. Things can go wrong.
Sometimes the application just gets in a weird or bad state where funds can’t be recovered — like with what happened with Parity where $280M got frozen (yes, I lost some money in that). Sometimes, there are hackers who discover a vulnerability in the code and maliciously steal funds — like how dForce lost $25M a few months ago, or how The DAO lost $50M a few years ago. And sometimes the system works as designed, but the economic model behind it is flawed, so a clever user takes advantage of the system— like what recently happened with Balancer where they lost $500k.
There are a lot of risks when interacting with smart contracts and decentralized applications — especially for ones that haven’t stood the test of time. This is why insurance is such an important development in DeFi.
Insurance will be an essential component in helping this technology reach the masses.Two protocols that are leading the way on DeFi insurance are Nexus Mutual and Opyn. Though they are both still just getting started, many people are already using them. And we’re excited to start working with them at Genesis Block.
Exchanges & LiquidityDecentralized Exchanges (DEX) were one of the first and most developed categories in DeFi. A DEX allows a user to easily exchange one crypto asset for another crypto asset — but without needing to sign up for an account, verify identity, etc. It’s all via decentralized protocols.
Within the first 5 months of 2020, the top 7 DEX already achieved the 2019 trading volume. That was $2.5B. DeFi is fueling a lot of this growth.
There are many different flavors of DEX. Some of the early ones included 0x, IDEX, and EtherDelta — all of which had a traditional order book model where buyers are matched with sellers.
Another flavor is the pooled liquidity approach where the price is determined algorithmically based on how much liquidity there is and how much the user wants to buy. This is known as an AMM (Automated Market Maker) — Uniswap and Bancor were early leaders here. Though lately, Balancer has seen incredible growth due mostly to their strong incentives for participation — similar to Compound.
There are some DEXs that are more specialized — for example, Curve and mStable focus mostly only stablecoins. Because of the proliferation of these decentralized exchanges, there are now aggregators that combine and connect the liquidity of many sources. Those include Kyber, Totle, 1Inch, and Dex.ag.
These decentralized exchanges are becoming more and more connected to DeFi because they provide an opportunity for yield and earning interest.Users can earn passive income by supplying liquidity to these markets. It usually comes in the form of sharing transaction fee revenue (Uniswap) or token rewards (Balancer).
PaymentsAs it relates to making payments, much of the world is still stuck on plastic cards. We’re grateful to partner with Visa and launch the Genesis Block debit card… but we still don’t believe that's the future of payments. We see that as an important bridge between the past (legacy finance) and the future (crypto).
Our first post in this series shared more on why legacy finance is broken. We talked about the countless unnecessary middle-men on every card swipe (merchant, acquiring bank, processor, card network, issuing bank). We talked about the slow settlement times.
The future of payments will be much better. Yes, it’ll be from a mobile phone and the user experience will be similar to ApplePay (NFC) or WePay (QR Code).
But more importantly, the underlying assets being moved/exchanged will all be crypto — digital, permissionless, and open source.Someone making a payment at the grocery store check-out line will be able to open up Genesis Block, use contactless tech or scan a QR code, and instantly pay for their goods. All using crypto. Likely a stablecoin. Settlement will be instant. All the middlemen getting their pound of flesh will be disintermediated. The merchant can make more and the user can spend less. Blockchain FTW!
Now let’s talk about a few projects working in this area. The xDai Burner Wallet experience was incredible at the ETHDenver event a few years ago, but that speed came at the expense of full decentralization (can it be censored or shut down?). Of course, Facebook’s Libra wants to become the new standard for global payments, but many are afraid to give Facebook that much control (newsflash: it isn’t very decentralized).
Bitcoin is decentralized… but it’s slow and volatile. There are strong projects like Lightning Network (Zap example) that are still trying to make it happen. Projects like Connext and OmiseGo are trying to help bring payments to Ethereum. The Flexa project is leveraging the gift card rails, which is a nice hack to leverage existing pipes. And if ETH 2.0 is as fast as they say it will be, then the future of payments could just be a stablecoin like DAI (a token on Ethereum).
In a way, being able to spend crypto on daily expenses is the holy grail of use-cases. It’s still early. It hasn’t yet been solved. But once we achieve this, then we can ultimately and finally say goodbye to the legacy banking & finance world. Employees can be paid in crypto. Employees can spend in crypto. It changes everything.
Legacy finance is hanging on by a thread, and it’s this use-case that they are still clinging to. Once solved, DeFi domination will be complete.https://preview.redd.it/svft1ce422b51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a6afc9e9339a3fec29ee2ae743c07c3042ea4ce
Impact on Genesis BlockAt Genesis Block, we’re excited to leverage these protocols and take this incredible technology to the world. Many of these protocols are already deeply integrated with our product. In fact, many are essential. The masses won’t know (or care about) what Tether, USDC, or DAI is. They think in dollars, euros, pounds and pesos. So while the user sees their local currency in the app, the underlying technology is all leveraging stablecoins. It’s all on “crypto rails.”
When users deposit assets into their Genesis Block account, they expect to earn interest. They expect that money to grow. We leverage many of these low-risk lending/exchange DeFi protocols. We lend into decentralized money markets like Compound — where all loans are overcollateralized. Or we supply liquidity to AMM exchanges like Balancer. This allows us to earn interest and generate yield for our depositors. We’re the experts so our users don’t need to be.
We haven’t yet integrated with any of the insurance or investment protocols — but we certainly plan on it. Our infrastructure is built with blockchain technology at the heart and our system is extensible — we’re ready to add assets and protocols when we feel they are ready, safe, secure, and stable. Many of these protocols are still in the experimental phase. It’s still early.
At Genesis Block we’re excited to continue to be at the frontlines of this incredible, innovative, technological revolution called DeFi.---
None of these powerful DeFi protocols will be replacing Robinhood, SoFi, or Venmo anytime soon. They never will. They aren’t meant to! We’ve discussed this before, these are low-level protocols that need killer applications, like Genesis Block.
So now that we’ve gone a little deeper down the rabbit hole and we’ve done this whirlwind tour of DeFi, the natural next question is: why?
Why does any of it matter?Most of these financial services that DeFi offers already exist in the real world. So why does it need to be on a blockchain? Why does it need to be decentralized? What new value is unlocked? Next post, we answer these important questions.
To look at more projects in DeFi, check out DeFi Prime, DeFi Pulse, or Consensys.
Other Ways to Consume Today's Episode:
Download the app. We're a digital bank that's powered by crypto:https://genesisblock.com/download
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Cryptocurrency technical analysis: neutral market dynamics before a powerful movement
This week, most stock market assets showed a neutral movement, which did not give investors clear signals about the need to take bull or bear positions. This trend was reflected in the cryptocurrency market. So, bitcoin continues to move below the key level of $10,000 and is unlikely to overcome it in the coming days. At the same time, it is worth noting a number of positive factors for the development of the price dynamics of crypto assets. Experts from one of the largest US banks, JPMorgan, presented a review according to which in March, bitcoin successfully passed its first stress test “mostly positive”. It also became known that the Binance crypto exchange launches quarterly BTC / USD futures contracts with leverage up to 125x, which will be available to users of the Binance Futures platform. This positive news can return to the market bulls that are waiting for signals for a successful entry.
BitcoinFrom the point of view of technical analysis, on a four-hour chart, BTC quotes are preparing for the development of a powerful movement. This is facilitated by going beyond the current consolidation between support at $9150 and resistance at $9500, in the area of which the line of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) runs. In the future, due to reduced liquidity, traders may begin to open bearish positions provided that bitcoin drops below $9150. In this scenario, BTC can go to targets at $8760 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and $8330.
A deeper decline is still unlikely, because in case of growth of capitalization of the stock market, part of the funds will be directed to the cryptocurrency market. But in the future months, we can expect quotes to go above the key level of $9500, which will allow Bitcoin to rush up to the target clusters of $9900– $10,000 and further to $10,400– $10,500.
BTC / USD chart, daily timeframe.
EthereumEthereum at the moment broke support at around $233, where the 11.4% Fibonacci retracement line runs, which allowed the altcoin to reach the important mark of $220. The next target for sellers will be the consolidation of $195– $200, below which is the line of the 200-day SMA. From this area, the ether will be ready to resume the upward movement to the first target of $251, overcoming of which will be a key condition for the continued development of the upward impulse. In this case, the goals for Ethereum will be the levels of $280, $300 and $320.
Chart ETH / USD, daily timeframe.
LitecoinLitecoin confidently reached the goal in the form of the upper boundary of the cluster $40– $42. However, further growth attempts are hampered by the 200-day SMA line, which is located at around $45. A strong impulse to sell can send LTC quotes down to the levels of $36 and $30.60.
However, it should be borne in mind that these marks are excellent opportunities for a set of positions for the purchase in the long term. In this case, the first target will be the level of $47.45. By the end of the year, traders will potentially be able to take profits at $52 (38.2% correctional level on the Fibonacci lines), $56.80, $60.80, $65 and $70.
LTC / USD chart, four hour timeframe.
Bitcoin cashA bitcoin fork moves within the framework of the “Horizontal Channel” with borders of $200– $272. The asset is trying to gain a foothold above the level of $250 and the 200-day SMA line, which has become an important resistance for him. Going below $200 will cause BCH to drop to $170, and a break above $272 will provide an opportunity to take profits at $305, $356 and $400. Now trading Bitcoin Cash in the range of $200– $272 may bring more risk than profit, so the best strategy for conservative investors is to wait for going beyond this consolidation.
BCH / USDT chart, four hour timeframe.
XRPXRP further reduced volatility and went down beyond the boundaries of consolidation of $0.2050– $0.2360, which allowed to reach the target of $0.18 in the moment. Closing the daily candle below this mark will allow the bears to send the asset to $0.16 and $0.1470. However, a breakthrough of the $0.2360 level and the 200-day SMA line will allow XRP quotes to rush further to the target levels of $0.2540, $0.27, $0.2860 and $0.30.
XRP / USD chart, daily timeframe.
Binance coinBinance Coin quotes realized the forecast for the development of the downward movement in the region of the lower boundary of the region of $15.30– $16. But bears will need a lot of strength to overcome it, and if successful, they will be able to take profits at $13.80 and $11.50.
But in the long run, from these levels, the restoration of BNB quotes to the first
goals in the form of levels of $17 and $18.14 may begin. This scenario will be realized provided that an important mark of $16 is broken where the 200-day MA line passes. In the perspective of this year, whales may raise the value of the crypto asset of the Binance exchange to the goals of $19.36, $21.30 and $23.50.
BNB / USDT chart, daily timeframe.
Top cryptocurrencies have recently shown a neutral trend, but it will not last long. Indeed, usually this is followed by a powerful movement of the crypto market, so traders should “fasten their seat belts” and prepare for active trading in the coming months.
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Hello everyone, thank you for your continued interest and support. In the past two weeks, various tasks of TokenClub have been progressing steadily. The product development and community operation progress this week are as follows:
1. TokenClub Events
1)TokenClub’s 2nd Token Circle Talent Show starts registration
The second 2nd Token Circle Talent Show is coming, providing you with a big stage that you want to show yourself in the coin circle. 500,000 people will watch your performances here. This event takes part in the form of registration, and enters the selection competition after passing the preliminary screening of TokenClub. The trial will be promoted in the form of live PK. Winners will receive key support from TokenClub, self-media matrix, help create personal exclusive boutique columns, get the chance to talk with more heavyweight guests, and there will be TCT awards waiting for you! Friends, sign up now.
2)June 1 activity ended successfully
On the advent of “June 1”, the TokenClub team opened a new welfare activity for overseas communities. During the event, follow the team’s official Twitter and forward the event poster in real time, or participate in the topic interaction of the Telegram group to receive private red envelope rewards
3)BTCGrandpa is invited to participate in the live broadcast of Golden Finance
On June 3rd, Grandma Coin was invited to participate in the live broadcast of Golden Finance’s “Mining Double Coins” theme. Review link:
4)BTCGrandpa was invited to participate in the 499 Block community AMA
On June 11, Grandpa Nina was invited to participate in the 499Block community AMA. The theme is “Coin Circle Big V Coin Grandpa takes you to see the market”, the article review link:
Recently, Jianan Technology Senior Vice President Lu Xiaoming, OKEx CEO-Jay Hao, Founder of Litecoin Charlie Lee, Binance Vice President Lu Mai, Bitribe Founder-SKY, Luyin Agreement Founder-Wang Dong, Kubi CEO-Johnny Lyu , Co-Founder of BTW.com-Dylan, MYKEY & Coin Hu founder Guru, suterusu investor & Betterbit founder Richard, CasperLabs CEO-Mrinal Manohar, CasperLabs COO- Cliff Sarkin, DoraHacks partner & business leader-Yue Hanchao, former Silicon Valley Engineer & Early Blockchain User-Wu Weilong, Distributed Capital Partner and General Counsel Sun Ming, Ontology Founder Li Jun, Cardano Project Founder Charles Hoskinson, QuarkChain Founding Partner Anthurine, ARPA Co-Founder & Chief Growth Officials-Nogi, the well-known KOL Ke Haoran of the currency circle, the “Ancient” old leek who loves trading, One.Love, the early investor of Bicc & the founder of CC Capital & the co-founder of the three o’clock blockchain community Wang Xiaobin, Binance Angel Steven, Binance Angel Wu Mi, Binance Angel July, Injective Protocol Co-Founder and CEO-Eric Chen, BN Capital Senior Partner-Wayne Lin, and TokenClub Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Investment Strategy Senior Expert-Zao Shen Chat with everyone Those things of the blockchain~
On June 1, the global blockchain live festival “Stay Live, Stay Young”-Bitribe +499BLOCK hosted by 499Block and Bitribe was childlike and childlike, celebrating June 1st. A total of 18 industry heavyweights, Jay Hao, Charlie Lee, Mai Lu, SKY, etc., and many industry leading exchanges such as Binance, OKEx, Matcha, Kucoin, Bitribe, BTW, etc. were invited to participate in the live broadcast festival Including Luyin agreement, Harmony, Cortex, Beam, Wedifi, etc., the continuous airdrop of up to 6BTC.
On June 1st, CasperLabs CEO-Mrinal Manohar, CasperLabs COO- Cliff Sarkin, DoraHacks partner & business leader-Yue Hanchao, former Silicon Valley engineer & early blockchain user-Wu Weilong was a guest at the TokenClub live room, sharing the theme: Ethereum 3.0: Casper Labs, a Silicon Valley star project, takes us to interpret Casper Labs together.
On June 1, Binance Luna talked to Lu Xiaoming, senior vice president of Jianan Technology, and talked to us about the mine. Lu Xiaoming believes that blockchain has played a huge role in breaking the “data island” and other aspects, and he has confidence in the future of the industry. Just like the sentence he gave to everyone: “We still believe firmly, still believe, of course ,we still love you!”
On June 2nd, Binance Yingge talked to the founder of MYKEY & Coin Hu. Around: “Is Stablecoin a killer application?” Speaking from the beginning of the coin circle to the first pot of gold to the establishment of MYKEY, Guru and shared with us the secrets of grasping so many value projects, investment experience, etc., and stability The key analysis was carried out.
On June 3, Binance Sis talked with Sun Ming, Partner and General Counsel of Distributed Capital-”Sun Ming, Partner of Distributed Capital: The past of the currency circle of a lawyer.” Sun Ming is more optimistic about Ethereum than Bitcoin. Sun Ming believes that the easiest way to invest is to choose the most important project in the main track.
On June 4, Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cointelegraph Chinese and the Cardano project, gave a live broadcast and shared an in-depth discussion around the topic of “How to Cardano surpass Ethereum after five years of precipitation.” Charles Hoskinson, who was a close working partner with V God and BM, why did he leave Bitshares and Ethereum to create the Cardano project? There is an answer in the live room.
On June 4, Binance Li Jiayi talked with Ontology founder Li Jun-”Ontology founder’s blockchain entrepreneurial experience”. For the future of the public chain, Li Jun believes that in the past two years of infrastructure construction, the public chain has paid more attention to technology. However, in the process of open source in the blockchain industry, technical homogeneity is gradually emerging. In the next stage, the public chain will pay more attention to the application of landing entities and offline scenarios, and new focus will appear, which is a good thing for the development of the public chain.
On June 5, Binance Seven Seven talked to Binance Captains-Hard Candy, He Rensi, Deer Deer Captain, and three post-90s Binance Captains. Focusing on the topic of “Binan Captain chatting about “Cloud Stall” earning “after-sleep income”, I talked about how the entire currency circle has been following the wind in recent days, to see how the Captain Binance is lying and making money.
On June 6, the post-modernist economist hard-core punkist master, Zao Shen, went online, with the theme of “street stalls in the city management area, and speculation of coins out of heaven.” “Street economy” has become the most popular word recently. In this issue, Zao Shen takes everyone to analyze: behind the promotion of the land stall economy, what are the trends and choices in national policies? And analyzed the recent stock market, currency circle, and international policies.
On June 8th, Binance Luna talked to Anthurine, the founding partner of QuarkChain, focusing on the “challenges and opportunities of blockchain in the “new infrastructure””. Anthurine is interested in the development of China’s new infrastructure and the blockchain industry in the new infrastructure In order to play its role, how to participate, and the new infrastructure you think they need the underlying architecture of the blockchain and other issues have been shared in detail.
On June 9th, Binance Yingge talked with ETC Asia-Pacific community manager Xu Kang Christian, and talked to everyone: the brother story of ETC and ETH. Xu Kang said that after 2016, a hard fork occurred in Ethereum. The newly forked chain is ETH, and the original chain is now ETC. Xu Kang believes that the most suitable native scenario for blockchain implementation is the financial field, followed by the alliance chain that the country has vigorously developed.
On June 10th, ARPA co-founder & chief growth officer-Noki as a guest TokenClub live broadcast room and Gate brand public relations Yue Yue connection centered on “ARPA DeFi ideas and growth strategy” centered on the discussion. Nogi talked to you about some ARPA things, and shared her views on the future of the entire digital currency and blockchain industry.
On June 10, Binance Li Jiayi talked to the well-known KOL Ke Haoran of the currency circle and One.Love, the “old” leek who loves trading. Both guests were Binance’s “bosses” (rebate partners). The two guests shared their respective stories in the currency circle and the stories they saw, and shared their own experience in currency speculation.
On June 11, Wang Xiaobin, an early investor of Bicc, founder of CC Capital, and co-founder of the three o’clock blockchain community made a guest live sharing and shared about the BICC trading platform, recent industry hotspots, and blockchain technology.
On June 11, Binance Qianjiangyue spoke to Binance Angels Steven, Wu Mi and July. Binance Angel is a volunteer team established at the beginning of Binance. This team exists as a real voice of community users. The three Binance Angels also shared their daily work in the live broadcast room.
On June 12, Binance Sis talked with Injective Protocol co-founder and CEO-Eric Chen, BN Capital Senior Partner-Wayne Lin, and shared their experiences of speculating on coins around “Defi makes the market value of crypto assets tenfold” , Investment experience and experience, a hot discussion was held on blockchain technology and Defi ecology.
On June 13th, the currency circle song king Zao Shen went live, and the theme was “Recovery of the Minority, Lost of the Most”. Mainly revolving around this Thursday’s plunge in the currency circle, US stocks have driven the currency market to chat. On the linkage of the US stocks & currency circle, the reasons for the collapse of US stocks, the following market trends and investment strategies were analyzed one by one. For more exciting content, please move to the live room.
3.TokenClub operation data
-Live data: 17 live broadcasts in the past two weeks, with over 500,000 views. TokenClub hosted a total of 889 live broadcasts with a total of 45.78 million views.
-Binary trade data: In the past two weeks, guess the rise and fall to participate in a total of 5274 times, the amount of participation exceeded 3 million TCT. At present, it is guessed that the rise and fall function has participated in a total of 1.12 million times, with a cumulative participation amount of 501 million TCT.
-Chat data: In the past two weeks, a total of 10124 messages have been generated. A total of 4.88 milliom messages have been launched since the function was launched.
-Mini-game data: The mini-game has participated in a total of 5069 times in the past two weeks. A total of 1,67 million self-functions have been online.
-Cut leeks game data together: Since the game was launched, the total number of user participation in the game was 976086 TCT total consumption was 6.28 million gift certificate total consumption was 16.39 million and TCT mining output was 163812.
-TokenClub KOL data: Over the past two weeks, the total reading volume of the BTCGrandpa article has been viewed by more than 300,000 people.
-Social media data: At present, the number of Weibo official accounts is 18053 and the number of Twitter followers is 1822 and we have opened the official Medium account this week, welcome to follow.
-Telegram official group data: In the past 2 weeks, there were 741 chats in the group, and the total number of Telegram official groups is currently 3113.
-Medium data: Medium official account u/TokenClub has published 3 excellent articles, official announcements and updates are published in English, welcome to follow.
On June 1, TokenClub organized an award-winning event for overseas users to participate in live broadcast interaction, retweet Twitter, and telegram group chat. At the same time, with the increase of live broadcast content, the telegram group is becoming more and more active, and the questions raised by overseas users who have just entered the telegram group are also answered in the first time. TokenClub has translated the high-quality live content of the past two weeks into English and released it to the Medium platform. Please pay attention.
TCT has been listed on Binance、Okex、Gate.io、ZB-M、MXC、Biki、Coinex、BigOne、Coinbene、Cybex、SWFT、Loopring、Rootrex etc.
TokenClub website: www.tokenclub.com
Bitcoin options are breaking records, and exchanges are competing for this segment. We will tell you what these tools are and how they worksubmitted by Smart_Smell to Robopay [link] [comments]
The cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving, integrating with the traditional and inheriting complex financial products such as futures and options.
Some types of fixed-term contracts are already firmly established in the bitcoin industry. This is noticeable by the activity of traders on the CME.
However, the situation with options is somewhat different. These derivatives are difficult to understand among ordinary market participants and are not yet so popular.
Nevertheless, there is a demand for such tools, as evidenced by the growth dynamics of this market segment and interest from platforms such as Binance and Bitfinex.
Bitcoin options have already been offered on CME, LedgerX and Bakkt, which are regulated and oriented primarily on whales. Among the unregulated sites, the leader is Deribit, followed by FTX and OKEx.
ForkLog magazine figured out what options are and what types of options are. We will talk about the features of these tools and the current state of affairs in the segment. In this article you will also find comments by leading market experts on the role of options in the industry.
What are options and how do they work?An option is a financial contract concluded between two parties — the holder and the seller. The first receives the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a certain amount of the underlying asset at the strike price (strike price) on a specific date (expiration date).
The seller undertakes to buy or sell the asset at the request of the option holder. The latter pays the seller at the time of purchase of the contract a certain amount of money — the so-called premium.
The rights and obligations of the holder and seller differ significantly. The former has the right to choose whether to exercise the option or not. The seller is obliged to fulfill the terms of the contract at the request of the holder.
Parameters such as the type of underlying asset, expiration date, strike price are fixed at the time of issue of the contract, after which they cannot be changed.
Like futures, options are derivative financial instruments and derivatives. This means that they can be based on various underlying assets (BA) — stocks, indices or cryptocurrencies.
“Like the options already existing in traditional finance for all major assets, there are contracts based on BTC and ETH on the cryptocurrency market. They are very interesting financial products“, said Su Zhu, head of Three Arrows Capital, in a conversation with ForkLog.
Options are used both for hedging risks and for speculative trading. For example, a speculator confident in the growth of the underlying asset buys a call option. If the BA price rises above the strike, the trader can use his contract to buy a discounted asset.
“Derivatives such as options allow users to hedge risks and generate revenue. Derivatives play a key role in the traditional financial market. These tools are needed so that the cryptocurrency market continues to grow and develop, being filled with new participants“, said Aaron Gong, vice president of Binance Futures.
Practical use of optionsConsider the simplest example of options hedging. Suppose there is a company manufacturing tomato paste, sauces and ketchups. There is a farmer supplying this company with tomatoes. He acts in conditions of fierce competition, close to perfect.
It is extremely important for a company to buy raw materials cheaper to minimize production costs and remain profitable. The farmer, in turn, hopes for a long-term cooperation with the company so as not to lose a major client.
The company offers the farmer an option, assuming the right to buy 10 tons of tomatoes of the next year’s crop at the current price — say, $1,000 per ton. To exercise this right, the company pays the farmer an option premium of 3% of the total transaction amount of $10,000, that is, $300.
The farmer will have to, at the request of the company, sell the appropriate quantity of goods at the above price and at a specified time.
A year later, the crop was high, which led to a decrease in the market value of tomatoes to $800 per ton. The company decides not to exercise its right to purchase raw materials for $10,000, as other farmers can buy the same 10 tons of tomatoes for only $8,000.
Thus, having lost only $300 as a premium on an option, the company is insured against price risk. Buying raw materials at a significantly lower market price is more than worth the price of the option contract.
Let’s imagine another scenario: the crop turned out to be unimportant and the price of scarce tomatoes jumped to $1200 per ton. Then the company will certainly take advantage of the right to purchase tomatoes for $1000. Thus, the result is any case.
It is easy to guess that the options can be used by miners to hedge the risks of adverse changes in the price of the extracted asset. For example, expecting a decrease in the price of BTC, miners can use options that give them the right to sell cryptocurrency in the future at a price higher than the breakeven point.
“Miners are already very active in options markets. And, probably, they will remain active“, Su Zhu said.
Su Zhu is confident that in the long term, options will make the cryptocurrency spot market more liquid and attractive to a wide range of participants. He added that the growing popularity of such contracts among miners could significantly reduce sales pressure.
“Options give miners the opportunity to fix the price of coins mined in the future. Miners can better manage their production costs and protect themselves from market volatility“, said Aaron Gong, expressing confidence that the popularity of options will continue to grow.
According to him, such tools open up new opportunities and may be of interest to speculators, funds and long-term cryptocurrency holders.
“Institutional investors are also showing growing interest in options and other derivatives. Last week it was reported that the famous Wall Street trader Paul Tudor Jones allocated a few percent from his Tudor BVI fund for bitcoin futures. This is a positive signal, which means that more and more institutions are interested in the cryptocurrency market“, Gong added.
However, option strategies are not suitable for every market participant — effective work with these tools requires certain experience, Co-founder of CoinIndex.agency Julia Sporysh is sure:
“Of course, in order to use this effectively, the miner must have an experienced trader (option strategies are some of the most difficult on the market) — or they will have to unite and work through specialized trading companies. This market exists, although it is not for the general public.”
Also, according to her, options may be of interest to funds and retail traders who have gained a hand in speculative trading.
“Options are an independent and good speculative tool. And if you have positions in futures or in the spot market, it’s just the time to explore new opportunities“, added Yulia Sporysh.
Types of optionsThere are two main types of options — option call and option put. The first gives the right to the contract holder to purchase a certain amount of the underlying asset from the seller (they also say — the inscription) at the strike price on a certain date in the future. This type of option was used in the tomato example.
The put option, on the contrary, gives the buyer of the contract the right to sell the underlying asset at a fixed price. The latter may be higher than the market at the time of expiration, which is beneficial to the trader.
Market participants use the call, predicting an increase in the price of BA, and put — expecting it to decline.
More complex strategies use combinations of these two types of contracts.
There is also the term “covered option”. For example, an option call is covered if the seller has the amount of the underlying asset corresponding to the terms of the contract.
Options may also differ in the style of execution — American or European.
European-style options require the holder to execute the contract exclusively on the expiration date. Such options, in particular, are presented at CME and Bakkt.
American style implies the possibility of contract execution at any time prior to the date of expiration. Options of both styles are traded all over the world, their names have no relation to geographic location.
There are less standardized, exotic options. However, the popularity and importance of such instruments in the financial market is not so great.
Parameters and conditions for trading certain options are described in the specifications for them, which indicate the expiration date, strike price and other elements of the contract.
Premium, strike price and cash optionThe option premium is the amount of money paid by the buyer to the seller. The premium is equal to the value of the contract and, in fact, represents a fee for the risk of adverse changes in the value of the underlying asset.
The option premium is formed by two components:
• Intrinsic value — the amount that the buyer would receive if the contract were currently executed. It depends on the ratio of the price of the underlying asset and the strike.
• Time value — depends on the time remaining until expiration. Usually, the less time it takes to execute a contract, the lower the premium.
As a rule, high price volatility contributes to premium growth, and vice versa. A deal with a close strike price in relation to the current one has much greater chances of closing in profit and, therefore, the premium for such an option will be relatively high.
The strike price is the price fixed in the option at which the buyer of the call option can buy (or sell, if this is a put option) the underlying asset. In turn, the seller of the contract is obliged to sell or buy BA.
Money is an indicator of the ability to receive funds from the exercise of the right to exercise a derivative. In the context of options, cash can be calculated by comparing the spot price of the BA and the strike price of the option. Thus, three options are possible:
• “in the money” option: in the case of a call — if the spot price is higher than the strike (then the intrinsic value of the contract is positive), in the case of a put, on the contrary, if the BA price is lower than the strike;
• option “on money” (or “with one’s own”) — equal strike to current stock quotes, intrinsic value equal to 0;
• the option “out of money” (“without money”) — the exercise of the option is not economically feasible; in such a situation, the current price of the underlying asset is lower than the strike price of the call option or, conversely, the spot price of the BA is higher than the strike price in the case of a put.
Option strategiesThere are many option trading strategies. Four basic approaches can be distinguished.
Long call — buying a call option, the investor expects an increase in the price of the underlying asset above the strike on the expiration date of the contract. Then he will be able to buy an asset at a discount to the market price and thus earn on the difference. If the price drops below the strike, the buyer risks only the premium paid for the option.
Long put — is a kind of alternative to a short position in the spot market. The buyer of the put option hopes to make money, assuming that the price of the BA falls below the strike at the time of expiration. In this scenario, the investor may sell the asset at a higher price than the market price.
Also, through a put option, an investor can limit the risk of a fall in the price of an asset that has a long position open. According to Su Zhu, miners may use the “protective put” strategy, in whose activity a substantial and prolonged drop in the price of mined cryptocurrency is undesirable. Through such tools, miners can provide profitable or even break-even activity.
Short call — the investor acts as the seller of the contract, counting on a decrease in the price of BA below the strike on the date of expiration. However, the higher the price of the asset, the more losses the inscription bears. Thus, the risk of the seller of the contract is unlimited, and the profit potential is limited by the premium on the sale of the call.
Short put — the seller of such an option expects a premium on it, being firmly convinced that the price of the BA will be higher than the strike.
Combinations of these basic strategies may underlie more sophisticated options trading approaches, such as:
• protective put — purchase of a put option for an available asset;
• covered (secured) call — an investor sells a call option to an existing BA or which will be acquired simultaneously with the sale of the option; the strategy reduces the risk of owning an asset, since a fall in its price is partially offset by a premium;
• straddle — a kind of bet on volatility, which implies the purchase of a call and put option on the same asset with the same expiration date and the same strike price;
• strangle — almost the same as straddle, differs only in different strike prices.
ConclusionsOptions are complex financial instruments, their mechanism of work is unlikely to be mastered immediately by most novice traders. Nevertheless, these derivatives may seem interesting to experienced market participants and, in particular, to miners.
The following advantages and disadvantages of options can be distinguished. Of the advantages of these contracts, we note:
- flexibility of use in speculative trading;
- the ability to use many combinations and trading strategies;
- a good tool for hedging risks;
- the ability to use in any trend — upward, downward, sideways.
- the difficulty of understanding the mechanism of work, especially for novice market participants;
- asymmetric conditions and, accordingly, risks for the buyer and seller;
- the complexity of trading strategies;
- the volatility of an option premium, which depends on the proximity of the expiration date and price dynamics in the spot market;
- low liquidity.
Different industry players have different cryptocurrency options. Some consider them promising tools useful for miners, funds, retail traders and the market as a whole. Others are convinced that such derivatives are archaism.
Nevertheless, options are gradually taking root in the cryptocurrency market. This is evident in the dynamics of trading volume and open interest. In addition, more and more exchanges are trying to add support for these contracts, which contributes to increased competition and further development of the industry.
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submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]
2018 \"Index Fund\" EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies of 2018 - Feb 2020/Month Twenty-Six Update - Down 81%
Note: the snapshot was taken on the 1st of March, so does not include the current COVID craziness. Stay tuned for next month's updates to see the result of the current crypto nose dive and how it compares to the current stock market nose dive.
Stay safe, wash your hands, take care of each other.
See the full blog post with all the tables here.
Month Twenty-Six – Down 81%After a strong start to 2020, February saw a bit of a pullback with nearly every 2018 Top Ten crypto ending in the red. Ethereum is the notable exception, gaining +21% for the month.
Ranking and February Winners and LosersA mixed month in terms of movement for this group of cryptos. NEM and Stellar made positive moves while Cardano and IOTA, fell two and four positions, respectively. Dash gave up some of the ground it made in January when it jumped an unprecedented 10 slots, but this month it fell from #16 back to #20.
For overall drop out rate, we’re back at the 50% mark: half of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out, specifically NEM, Dash, IOTA, Cardano, and Stellar. They have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tezos, Tether, and BSV.
February Winners – Ethereum easily outperformed the field this month with a +21% gain. NEM finished in second place, up +4%.
February Losers – All the other cryptos ended the month in the red. IOTA picks up the L this month, losing -28% of its value followed closely by Dash which finished down -27%.
For nerds): here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses in the first 26 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. Most monthly wins (6): Bitcoin. Most monthly losses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win and Bitcoin now stands alone as the only crypto that hasn’t lost a month (although it came close in January 2020), when it gained “only” +31%).
Overall update – BTC far ahead, ETH takes second place from LTC, IOTA and NEM worst performingNo news here: Bitcoin is still well ahead of the field. Although down -35% since the beginning of 2018, BTC is still returning roughly double of the next crypto down, Ethereum – which, thanks to a strong February, has overtaken Litecoin for second place.
While NEM remains at the bottom, IOTA is dropping quickly. They are down -95% and -94% respectively.
Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:The overall crypto market lost about $12B in February 2020, a non-event in the crypto world. Since January 2018, the total market cap is down about -57%.
Bitcoin dominance:Bitcoin dominance ticked down another two points to 64% in February 2020. The last time BitDom was this low was back in July 2019. The range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been quite wide: a high of 70% in September 2019 and a low of 33% in February 2018.
Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio lost about $16 bucks in February 2020. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $186, down -81% from January 2018.
Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month:
As you can see, nothing but red. The closest the 2018 Top Ten group has come to breaking even was after the very first month, when the portfolio was down -20%. It has been at the at least -80% loss level for the past seven months in a row.
The 2019 Top Ten Experiment and the just launched 2020 Top Ten Experiment are both doing much better:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $3,170.
That’s up about +5.6%.
Implications/Observations:As always, the experiment’s focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos continues to be a losing approach. While the overall market is down -57% from January 2018, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -81% over the same period. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I’d picked different cryptos.
At no point in this experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-six months compared to the market overall.
There are a few examples, however, of this approach outperforming the overall market in the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. And the first two months of the 2020 Experiment show that focusing on the Top Ten is a winning strategy.
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. After a rough coronavirus fueled week, the S&P 500 has lost a lot of ground. It is currently up only +11% since the beginning of 2018. The initial $1k investment into crypto would have yielded about +$110 had it been redirected to the S&P.
Taking the same drop-$1,000-per-year-on-January-1st approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments would yield the following:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,200.
That’s up about +6.7% compared to +5.6% with the Top Ten Crypto Experiments.
That’s getting pretty close now, eh? While this month’s update/snapshot is greatly influenced by the coronavirus stock market correction, a difference of only 1% is definitely worth noting.
Conclusion:Not a great month for crypto, but not a horrible one, especially if you compare to the free fall in the stock market. Depending on how the coronavirus influences both traditional and crypto markets, we could be in for an interesting few months.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.
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